Those jackpot odds are printed on every prize chart, but the charts don't say where they come from or what they mean in practice. This guide works through the arithmetic, the odds of winning anything at all, and how the big games compare with the smaller ones your state runs.
How are lottery odds calculated?
By counting every possible ticket. Powerball draws five white balls from 1 to 69 and one red Powerball from 1 to 26. Order doesn't matter for the white balls, so the number of possible sets of five is 11,238,513. Multiply by the 26 possible red balls and you get 292,201,338 combinations. Exactly one of them wins the jackpot.
Mega Millions draws five white balls from 1 to 70 and a gold Mega Ball from 1 to 24. That's 12,103,014 sets of white balls times 24 Mega Balls, or 290,472,336 combinations. The jackpot odds of the two games are almost identical. The prices aren't: Powerball costs $2 a play, while Mega Millions has cost $5 since its April 2025 overhaul, with a random 2x to 10x multiplier included.
What are the odds of winning any lottery prize?
Both games have nine prize levels. Add up the winning combinations across all of them and you get the odds of winning something on a single play.
| Powerball | Mega Millions | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackpot (all five plus the bonus ball) | 1 in 292,201,338 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| Five white balls only | 1 in 11,688,053 | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| Bonus ball only | 1 in 38.32 | 1 in 35 |
| Any prize | 1 in 24.87 | about 1 in 23 |
Powerball publishes its overall odds on the official prize chart. Mega Millions lists the odds for each tier but not an overall figure. Adding its nine tiers together gives 1 in 23.07. Most of those wins are the smallest prizes: $4 for matching only the red Powerball, and $10 or more for matching only the Mega Ball, since every Mega Millions play now carries a multiplier.
Matching all five white balls without the bonus ball is about 25 times likelier than the jackpot on Powerball. That prize is $1 million, or $2 million with Power Play.
Which lottery games have better odds?
Smaller state games, by a long way. In a pick-5 game with no bonus ball, the jackpot odds depend only on how many numbers are in the drum:
| Number range (pick 5) | Example game | Jackpot odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1–32 | Colorado Cash 5 | 1 in 201,376 |
| 1–35 | Texas Cash Five | 1 in 324,632 |
| 1–36 | Florida Fantasy 5 | 1 in 376,992 |
| 1–39 | California Fantasy 5 | 1 in 575,757 |
| 1–45 | Jersey Cash 5 | 1 in 1,221,759 |
Daily digit games are simpler still. A Pick 3 straight bet has odds of 1 in 1,000 and a Pick 4 straight bet 1 in 10,000, and many states pay $500 on a $1 Pick 3 straight win. Our guides to Cash 5 and Fantasy 5 and Pick 3 and Pick 4 payouts go into the details, and Powerball vs Mega Millions compares the two national games.
How unlikely is 1 in 292 million?
Numbers that large are hard to picture, so a few comparisons help.
- If you read out one Powerball combination every second, without stopping, it would take more than nine years to get through them all.
- The National Weather Service puts the lifetime odds of being struck by lightning at about 1 in 15,300, based on 2009–2018 data and an 80-year lifespan. That's roughly 19,000 times likelier than a Powerball jackpot.
- The chance of being dealt a royal flush in five cards is 1 in 649,740. You'd need about 450 of those chances to equal one jackpot ticket.
- Flipping a fair coin and getting 28 heads in a row has odds of about 1 in 268 million, close to a single Powerball ticket.
Jackpots still get won because so many tickets are sold, and sales climb as the jackpot grows. A one-in-292-million event can happen to someone in the country while staying extremely unlikely for any one ticket.
Does buying more tickets improve your odds?
Yes, in direct proportion. Ten tickets with different numbers give you 10 chances in 292,201,338, which is 1 in about 29.2 million. A hundred tickets get you to about 1 in 2.9 million. The odds per dollar never change, and the chance stays very small. Lottery pools let a group hold more tickets in exchange for splitting any prize.
Nothing about how you choose numbers changes the odds. Hot and cold numbers, past results and prediction software all leave every combination at the same chance. Our guide to what actually works covers the few choices that do make a difference, such as avoiding numbers lots of other people pick.
One thing you fully control is whether a winning ticket gets paid. Check your numbers against the latest results on our Powerball and Mega Millions pages, and know the deadline for claiming a prize in your state.
Lottery odds FAQ
What are the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot?
1 in 292,201,338. There are 11,238,513 ways to choose five white balls from 69, multiplied by 26 possible red Powerballs. The odds of winning any Powerball prize are 1 in 24.87.
What are the odds of winning Mega Millions?
The jackpot odds are 1 in 290,472,336 (five white balls from 70 and a Mega Ball from 24). Adding up all nine prize tiers, the odds of winning any prize are about 1 in 23. A play costs $5 and includes a multiplier, so the smallest prize is $10.
Does buying more lottery tickets improve your odds?
Yes, in direct proportion. Ten different Powerball tickets give you odds of about 1 in 29.2 million, and 100 tickets about 1 in 2.9 million.
Which lottery has the best odds of winning?
Smaller state games. Pick-5 games such as Cash 5 and Fantasy 5 have jackpot odds from about 1 in 200,000 to 1 in 1.2 million depending on the number range, and a Pick 3 straight bet is 1 in 1,000. The prizes are much smaller than Powerball's or Mega Millions'.
Are you more likely to be struck by lightning than win the lottery?
Yes. The National Weather Service estimates lifetime odds of being struck by lightning at about 1 in 15,300, roughly 19,000 times likelier than winning a Powerball jackpot with one ticket.
Sources: powerball.com prize chart; megamillions.com How to Play (tier odds; the overall figure is our sum of the nine tiers); National Weather Service lightning odds; pick-5 odds calculated from each game's number range.
